A short month ago, the blooming trees in Ghulam Rasool Ganaie’s apple orchard in South Kashmir’s Kulgam were a sight to behold, with their vibrant hues of white filling his heart with anticipation for a good yield this year. He watched over the orchard day and night, tending to each tree with utmost care, but nature threw a wrench in his plan. It felt like the skies were conspiring against the fate of his produce as the quick burst of hailstorm earlier this month rendered his fruit worthless.
“The pea-sized hails have caused deep depressions and deformed the young fruit. We didn’t earn any profit last year despite a bumper crop, and it seems like this is going to be another year of loss for us,” Ghulam Rasool said. “I am struggling to pay off my previous debts. This is a disaster,” he added, as he tried to avoid the sight of the bruised apples.
As dark clouds loomed overhead on the first day of June, Aadil Ahmad, another fruit grower stood motionless in front of what remained of his beloved orchard in Manzgam Kulgam. The apple crop was in the petal fall stage when heavy pellets raged on for about 15 minutes and turned the village into a snowy abode. “70% of my crop got destroyed. Even if I try to protect whatever is left, I know it is going to be a no-win situation for us,” he said. “We were not prepared for this, but can one really be?” Aadil wondered.
Erratic weather conditions have prevailed in Kashmir for more than a month now. From north to south, large parts of Kashmir received untimely rainfalls, hailstorms coupled with thunderstorms and even snow at higher reaches. But these are not isolated events. In 2021, untimely snowfall in the month of October caused extensive damage to both the unharvested apple crop and trees in many parts of South Kashmir. Similar instances of inclement weather during late autumn were recorded in 2018 and 2019. Such weather vagaries leading to destruction of crops has become an annual occurrence, leaving Kashmir’s apple growers perennially unprepared to tackle the resulting damage.
Is climate change playing a role in Kashmir’s agricultural challenges?
“It is the month of June, but the weather feels like winter,” almost everyone can be heard saying the same in Kashmir. But what could be causing such an unusual weather pattern, with temperatures much lower than expected for this time of the year? Experts have indicated that climate change can result in unpredictable weather, including unseasonal rain. “Climate change doesn’t necessarily only mean a rise in temperatures, it refers to any disruption in normal weather. Early snowfall, warmer winters and the prolonged rain with erratic weather events that Kashmir is currently witnessing can all be linked to climate change,” Dr. Irfan Rashid, senior Assistant Professor, Department of Geo informatics, University of Kashmir, told Kashmir Observer. “Most of the rainfall in Kashmir comes from western disturbances and the pattern of these disturbances has also changed over the past years,” he added.
According to the data shared by Independent Weather Forecaster, Faizan Arif Keng, Jammu and Kashmir recorded 96.3 mm rainfall in the month of May, a surplus rainfall of 24% as against the normal precipitation of 77.5 mm. In April, the region experienced 113.5 mm of rainfall, marking a 14% surplus compared to the average rainfall of 99.6mm. The rainfall of last month in J&K is higher than the similar months of previous two years.
Studies suggest that climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, intensity, and impacts of some types of extreme weather events. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate also speculated that the indicators of erratic weather patterns will accentuate and amplify by the end of this century over Himalayan and other regions of the world,” Dr. Irfan said.
“If the irregular weather patterns persist, it will certainly have negative consequences on the horticulture sector of Kashmir.”
Most of the weeks in the month of April and May were forecasted to be particularly cloudy with intermittent rains and strong wind, which also made the conditions conducive for hailstorms. Advisories to postpone spray of orchards on particular days were made through different mediums, however, the potential for hailstorms, the exact timing, location, and intensity of hailstorms can still be difficult to determine with precision, meteorologists suggest.
“It is nearly impossible to predict a hailstorm and pinpoint where exactly a hail will strike,” Deputy Director, Meteorological Department, Jammu and Kashmir, Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad said. “Jet stream positioning, western disturbances and ground heating are important factors to consider when predicting hails. Hailstorms cannot be predicted with certainty in every rainfall event,” the weather forecaster added.
Why do excessive rains and hails cost so much?
Dr. Tariq Rasool, Senior Scientist and Assistant Professor of Plant Pathology at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-K), while highlighting the vulnerabilities of the horticulture sector said that hailstorms cause injuries to the fruit, that even when treated can leave blemishes, ultimately leading to a devaluation of the crop. “Temperature dipping can impact the fruit set process by reducing pollination rates. The reduction in the number of sunny days can affect the overall development of the fruit,” Dr. Tariq said.
Despite one’s best efforts, “it is nearly impossible to adequately prepare for the unpredictable and frequently devastating effects of anomalous climate behavior,” Bashir Ahmad Basheer, President of Kashmir Fruit Association, said. Hailstorms strike suddenly and leave a trial of devastation in their wake, nevertheless, “preventing the further spread of diseases by spraying the necessary fungicide or pesticides after storms should be the first step towards mitigating the impact of erratic weather events,” he said.
Is netting a possible solution?
The installation of protective hail netting is one effective way that countries like Germany and China – the major producer of apples in the world – and many growers in India’s Himachal take up to prevent the loss of crops due to hail. The nets are usually made up from a sturdy, hail-resistant material such as high-density polyethylene (HDPE), nylon or polyester. The demand for these nets is picking up in Kashmir as well but “ Nearly 95% of orchardists in Kashmir valley are marginal growers with small land holdings and netting is a costly affair for them,” Bashir Ahmad opined.
“Fruit growers of Kashmir are incurring losses for the last many years due to back to back lockdowns, highway hassles and inclement weather. The rates of agrochemicals have escalated, and with no expectation of generating profits or returns, the growers fear that they won’t be able to cope with the added financial burden,” he said.
Over 78% of India’s annual apple production comes from Jammu and Kashmir, making it a crucial source of livelihood for over 3.5 million people. Of the total 3.31 lakh hectares of land used for fruit cultivation in the region, about half, around 1.67 lakh hectares, is used for growing apples. Kashmir’s economy, majorly dependent on agriculture, has experienced a significant setback in recent years. Many have shifted to high density Italian species to enhance apple production and for greater economic returns on their yield. However, the vast majority of apple farms continue to cultivate the traditional variety of the fruit and “netting is not a viable option for traditional orchards,” Dr. Tariq said, “Anti-hail nets are more commonly installed in newer, high-density orchards that use more advanced cultivation techniques. In contrast, traditional orchards tend to have a different structure and layout, which may not be suitable for anti-hail net installation.” He also reiterated that not every grower can afford a hail net, as the initial establishment cost of high density orchard is very expensive.
Other than the nets, the Himachal Pradesh government will be testing the use of indigenously developed ‘anti-hail guns.’ To help out horticulturists who face crop damage due to hailstorms, an anti-hail gun generates shock waves to disrupt the growth of hailstones in clouds, according to its makers. These shock waves supposedly stop water droplets in clouds from turning into hailstones, so that they fall simply as raindrops. However, there is a certain lack of understanding about the success of these guns in suppressing the hail storms and the usage of these machines in Kashmir can only be determined over time.
Mechanised spraying can trim down the expenses
Accentuating the need of newer technologies as a measure to deal with the changing weather patterns, Dr. Tariq said, “Farmers in Kashmir spray their fields manually which is a very labour consuming process and has low efficacy. This process could be mechanised by introduction of advanced technology like power tractors that save a lot of time, reduce the amount of pesticides/agrochemicals by approximately 30% and increase fruit quality and profitability.”
Wet weather triggers diseases like scab and it also hinders spraying schedules. It is very challenging to manage these infections in regular rains using the prevailing spraying technology, “so mechanisation is a good risk management strategy that can also help make farming sustainable.”
Weather based strategy
When the climate is changing, the strategies too should. Relying solely on the traditional approaches to crop management may no longer be sufficient. ‘Weather based decision support system for crop risk management’ is what the experts suggest as another measure to reduce the input loss. It is a technology that aids farmers in making weather-based agricultural decisions through SMS, mobile apps, and information kiosks. “We at SKUAST are keen at developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven system which would provide location specific and custom advisory for farmers. We are working on this and will soon start offering real-time weather-based agricultural advice to the farmers,” Dr. Tariq said.
No crop insurance
Despite an official announcement that the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)/crop insurance scheme has been approved for all the districts of J&K in February this year, it has not been implemented yet. The scheme is, however, successfully running in parts of Jammu region. “Insuring their crops would help the farmers mitigate the financial risks of weather related losses and receive compensation for the damage,” Nisar Ahmad, an orchardist said.
Dr. Tariq also said that with crop insurance in place, growers can take risks and adapt innovative techniques and technologies. “It will significantly enhance the resilience of farmers against climate change-driven events,” he said.
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