IT is now one year before general elections will be held. But considering the BJP’s continuing dominance, the return of the BJP to power in 2024 is almost a foregone conclusion. The party could end up achieving a bigger victory than it did in 2019.
However, the outcome of the ten Assembly polls scheduled to be held before the 2024 general elections will be equally important. Among them the elections in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telengana will be very crucial. The BJP will hope to win all of them. But should the party suffer reverses in the majority of these states, this may not bode well for its 2024 chances. The elections in these five major states represent the last chance for the opposition to hurtle back into the reckoning.
It appears, however, very unlikely that the BJP may not do well in the upcoming Assembly polls. Despite being in power for over nine years, the party remains untouched by anti-incumbency. The overarching political persona of the prime minister Narendra Modi seems to trump everything. Neither the Congress nor the combined opposition are in a position to mount a credible challenge to the BJP. Or so it seems.
As things stand, the opposition is unable to even unite over a governance issue such as inflation, let alone against the BJP. True, Rahul Gandhi’s 4000 kilometre padyatra has put some wind back in the sails of Congress but the party’s actual test will be its performance in the upcoming Assembly polls. It remains to be seen whether it does well in the major states such as Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telengana. This will also be a test for Gandhi’s perceived new leadership skills. While many agree that he has gone through a makeover, people generally remain skeptical about his ability to generate a public groundswell in favour of the Congress. He has so far singularly failed to match up to the political persona of prime minister Narendra Modi. Will he pull it off this time around? The odds are heavily against it. Ever since he took over the leadership of the Congress, both in his formal and de facto roles, Gandhi has proved incapable of rallying people behind the party.
Things will certainly become clearer in the weeks and months to come. But considering the popularity of the PM Modi, it is unlikely that the one party, even if it is of Congress’ pedigree would be able to mount a credible challenge to his leadership. The opposition would need a powerful narrative to make some dent. But that is still far from materializing, yatra notwithstanding.
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