THE earthquake occurrence in Turkey and the contiguous regions is not new. The hazards are well-known, mapped, and established by earthquake scientists long ago. Therefore, the potential of earthquake faults to host devastating earthquakes in Turkey was forecasted by geologists, which means that the ability of the fault to have earthquakes of magnitude seven and above was known. Yet, that crucial information was not put into practice, resulting in the devastation, which is yet to be fully scaled regarding the estimation of loss of life and assets. It is reported that populated regions in the border areas of Turkey and Syria were initially hit by the magnitude 7.8 quake, which caused widespread devastation. And then, another 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred in the nearby region and caused much more damage, which has not been fully accessed. We could only wish and pray for the safety of all.
But the more significant question remains about our consistent failures due to our inability to secure life and assets. The earthquake hazard was known, but only the quake’s timing was unknown, which perhaps we may never master because of the complexity of how faults behave. Therefore, we had enough time that we could have efficiently used to develop a robust scientific approach to building buildings to secure them from toppling like a deck of cards. We miserably failed, and that is our own fault. The earthquake hazard was turned into a disaster by our failures to learn from our mistakes and to follow the available scientific wisdom. We are helping by sending aid and other lifesaving facilities, akin to digging a water well when the fire is ongoing!
The entire Jammu and Kashmir region is battling a similar fate, where earthquake hazards could turn into disasters. There is everything available that is needed just to do that. We have no ground preparation to handle magnitude seven and above quakes, which should send shivers down our spines. What kind of structures and buildings have we constructed to withstand earthquakes? They are a deck of cards that are ready to topple. And we are not taking anything seriously, although we have all the information available to us that the region has the potential to cause a damaging earthquake in the future. The timing is not known, which is a global problem in earthquake research where the timing of the incoming earthquake cannot be established. We should take this as an opportunity, prepare for the worst, and plan for any eventuality.
Therefore, we must learn from the earthquake devastation in Turkey and use it as a warning to prepare ground for major earthquakes in Jammu and Kashmir. We are waiting for a major quake, which is based on scientific evidence, and that could cause devastation of enormous scales. Please follow the instructions on how to build earthquake-resistant structures and how to repair houses so that they can face major earthquakes. Time is ticking, we are on a tectonic clock, and we must prepare — now.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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