Will India Scrap Indus Water Treaty?

Broken treaties are a sign of war

By Haider Abbas

IT has not even been a week since BBC broke the news, quoting from the upcoming book of Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, that after the Balakot strikes from India on Pakistan, in February 2019, there were apprehensions from New Delhi that Islamabad was preparing for a nuclear-strike on India.

Pompeo has disclosed in his book, “Never Give An Inch: Fighting for the America I Love” that the US saved the region from an ultimate catastrophe by his (Pompeo’s) deft-diplomacy. But, after the news had hit the public domain, only a day later, on January 27, a report from The Hindu said that India wants to modify the India-Pakistan Indus Water Treaty (IWT) signed between the two nations in 1960.

The biggest salvo has been fired by India on Pakistan, as now this 63-years-old treaty, which had weathered even the wars between India and Pakistan (1965, 1971, 1999) stands to be modified! India was reportedly compelled for the move, made officially on January 25, “owing to Pakistan’s persistent objections regarding India’s Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects in Kashmir. The notice was sent through Commissioners for Indus Waters that both sides have appointed under the treaty.” The Indian step has come after Pakistan had approached the Permanent Court of Arbitrage at The Hague over two hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir which Indian officials claim that Pakistan stance is against the agreed mode of dispute resolution.

This issuance of a notice of this kind, directly to Pakistan, perhaps for the first time since Independence, has quite understandably sent shock-waves across the whole spectrum, as India has been forced towards this step due to Pakistan’s actions. “India is seeking modifications in the treaty to make it easier for Pakistan to enter into intergovernmental negotiations, within 90 days, and rectify the ‘material breach’ of IWT. This process would also update IWT to incorporate the lessons learned over the last 62 years,” NDTV reported. Therefore, Pakistan has been issued a 90-days deadline to ‘respond’ or else supply of water to Pakistan might be in jeopardy. Nothing bigger of such kind has ever happened between India and Pakistan.

Broken treaties are a sign of war. The Second World War had started when the Treaty of Versailles was violated but unlike any other treaty, this IWT had always been considered to be one of the world’s most-sustained treaties. Yet now the threat of it getting-scrapped is being largely speculated in the public domain.

What constitutes it? 

It was signed by Pakistan President Ayub Khan and PM JL Nehru negotiated by the World Bank and despite conflicts India did not stop water from Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Sutlej, Beas and Ravi and in fact had given unfettered access to them for Pakistan. It can be anyone’s guess that had India blocked the waters of these rivers, Pakistan was to be instead in great-troubled-waters! Jhelum, Chenab and Indus were to be for Pakistan to exercise its control while India contended with Sutlej, Beas and Ravi and even in it, Pakistan had the right to put-into any objections, as sanctioned through the IWT. If in case India was to build any power plant or a dam on these last three, Pakistan had every right to raise its objections, initiate a dialogue and discuss its modalities.

But, there have now been many views, particularly from Right-Wing associations, even by Parliamentarians too, that it is high time India scraps the treaty. All of these rivers pass through Kashmir, which quite understandably makes Pakistan all the more jittery over the Kashmir issue. In case Pakistan is to stamp its control on the Indian part of Kashmir, on hypothetical terms, the entire water issue of Pakistan was to be easily solved. But, that is not to happen.

Pakistan became complacent and did not make compatible dams in the last six decades to meet its needs, while now India, had started to build Kishenganga Power Project (330 Megawatt, 5783 Cr, completed) and Ratle Hydro Electric Project ( 850 Megawatt, 5281 Cr and due to be completed soon). This raised Pakistan’s eyebrows and Pakistan contests that these two projects would hinder the water flow towards Pakistan and that India has breached the IWT. India contends that India was to ally Pakistan fears, as partners and as per sanctions of IWT, but Pakistan went ahead to call for a neutral expert by the World Bank in 2015, and also a separate arbitration into it too, to the angst of India. Pakistan wants India to stall these projects, which is impossible, as according to India, Pakistan has from its side broken the IWT, as it has gone unilaterally for arbitration. In a series of tweets, senior advisor to the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting Kanchan Gupta has spelled the Indian position, about the impending dangers that India has now made its mind to make a final adieu to IWT.

Pakistan has retorted on the Indian ultimatum, and a war of words has ensued between the two nations. Pakistan has accused India to have engaged in attention diversion from the proceedings of the court of Arbitration, already in place at Hague, as per Tribune India on January 28, the notice from India had come hours after it. Pakistan has submitted through its attorney that the “resolution of disputes raised by Pakistan was a demonstration of India’s characteristic bad faith. Pakistan, on the other hand, has also said that ‘any risk of conflicting outcomes that India apprehends can be arrested through coordination and cooperation between the two fora. Therefore, Pakistan is engaging with both fora.” Pakistan has sought that the treaty cannot be unilaterally modified.

What however, ought to be referred is that on November 25, 2016, India’s PM Narendra Modi, had already signaled, according to The Hindu that “the water that rightfully belongs to India under the Indus Water Treaty cannot be allowed to go to Pakistan and government was working towards a mechanism for optimum utilisation of every single drop of water from Satluj, Ravi and Beas rivers. Under the Indus Water Treaty, India has the right over water of Satluj, Beas and Ravi rivers. It rightfully belongs to our farmers, but this water is not reaching the farmer’s field, instead the water is flowing to Pakistan.” Therefore, the lines are now drawn. The PM’s statement had come after the Uri attack, on September 18, 2016, in which 19 Indian soldiers were killed.

In 2019, in the aftermath of the Pulwama attack, the Union Minister for Water Resources and a senior leader in the ruling party BJP Nitin Gadkari said that all water flowing from India will be diverted to Indian states to punish Pakistan for an alleged connection to the attack, something which the Pakistani Government denied and condemned. Union Minister of State for Jal Shakti Rattan Lal Kataria said that “every effort is made” to stop the flow of water downstream from the three assigned rivers.

India, notably, derives military advantage out of IWT as its scope is confined to the Indus system of rivers (both eastern and western rivers) basin area located in India and also in Ravi and Sutlej basins located in Pakistan per Articles II(1 to 4) and III(2 to 3) and the IWT deals only with the sharing of water available/flowing in Indian part between Pakistan and India. As per the IWT, Pakistan bombing / destroying dams, barrages, power stations, etc. located in Indian part of the Indus system of rivers is violation of the IWT which can lead to abrogation of IWT. Pakistan, on the other hand, has raised concerns with World Bank regarding India’s new dam project on the Chenab River, saying that it is not in conformity with the Treaty and argued that India could use these reservoirs to create artificial water shortage or flooding in Pakistan.

Before this unending tussle casted shadow on the treaty, David Lilienthal, the former U.S. Atomic Energy Commissioner, had visited the region during fifties to write a series of articles for Collier’s magazine. He suggested that the World Bank might use its good offices to bring the parties to an agreement and help in the financing of an Indus Development program. “India and Pakistan were on the verge of war over Kashmir,” Lilienthal notes in his journal. “There seemed to be no possibility of negotiating this issue until tensions abated. One way to reduce hostility . . . would be to concentrate on other important issues where cooperation was possible. Progress in these areas would promote a sense of community between the two nations which might, in time, lead to a Kashmir settlement. Accordingly, I proposed that India and Pakistan work out a program jointly to develop and jointly operate the Indus Basin River system, upon which both nations were dependent for irrigation water. With new dams and irrigation canals, the Indus and its tributaries could be made to yield the additional water each country needed for increased food production.” But much to Lilienthal’s dismay, the water sharing has remained a silent sparkplug in the South Asia.

To end the treaty, J&K state assembly in 2003 passed a unanimous resolution for the abrogation of the treaty, and again in June 2016, the Jammu and Kashmir assembly demanded revision of the Indus Water Treaty. The legislators feel that the treaty trampled upon the rights of the people and treats the state of Jammu and Kashmir as a non-entity.

It is now only a matter of days that IWT will be a fig leaf of the past. The result of the 90-days deadline, only time can tell but the treaty which had withstood three wars is now slated to become a relic of the past, that too, in times of the apparent peace (sic). Let’s see what happens next.

Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer

• The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international politics 

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