Polls Apart

ALTHOUGH home minister Amit Shah mentioned holding elections for the Assembly after the electoral records were updated during his recent trip to Jammu and Kashmir, it is unclear when or whether this will happen. But the visit had all the hallmarks of an election campaign. The visit stood out mostly for its political signals and the two rallies that the home minister addressed in Rajouri and Baramulla, though he also attended a security review meeting and launched some development projects.

The big takeaway from the Shah’s visit was his public mobilization around the idea that Kashmir after the withdrawal of its special constitutional status in August 2019 was better than before. To this end, his two rallies were meant to make a symbolic point. They were well-attended too. Over ten thousand people attended the Baramulla rally,  which was unusual and unexpected for a BJP leader, otherwise perceived to be working against Muslim interests – more so in Kashmir. This, despite the fact, that Baramulla town where the rally was held was under siege for the entire day. The shops weren’t allowed to open, and the traffic couldn’t pass. No traffic was allowed also on the Srinagar-Baramulla highway.

This, however, didn’t detract from the significance of the Baramulla rally. It was once unthinkable that a rally of this size could be held by a top BJP leader in a north Kashmir town, once roiled by militancy and conflict. And Shah made most of it by training guns on the three families – Abdullahs, Muftis and Gandhis – who, according to him, have ruled and ruined Jammu and Kashmir over the past seven decades. He asserted that Naya Kashmir forged after the erasure of the special constitutional status was a far better place than the earlier, counting the reduction of violence, investments in development projects, and the resurrection of tourism among the BJP government’s achievements.

Shah’s claims were reinforced as the two-day visit went incident-free. In the run-up to the visit, however, there were a few incidents of violence in Jammu, including the blast on passenger buses and the killing of the DGP Prisons H K Lohia, the latter termed by the police as a crime.

The home minister’s other political signal was the outreach to the Gujjar, Bakerwal and Pahari communities. Shah announced the implementation of the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for economically disadvantaged communities. Addressing the rally at Rajouri, the home minister said minorities and Dalits living in the Union Territory would not have gotten reservation rights if there was no abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in 2019. And in Baramulla, he reiterated the reservation promise to the three communities. The ST quota in J&K carries 7 percent reservations in government jobs and educational institutions.

The decision to give reservations to the communities is seen as a clever pre-poll gambit by the BJP. Largely Muslims, Gujjars, Bakerwals, and Paharis comprise 40 percent of the population in border districts. And if the gambit succeeds as looks likely, it could persuade a large section of these tribal communities to vote for the BJP, further assuring its victory in the Jammu division and also enabling the party to make some inroads in Kashmir Valley.

Eight assembly seats in the Rajouri and Poonch districts of the Jammu division are decidedly influenced by the Paharis, the Gujjars, and the Bakerwals. For any political party hoping to form the government in J&K, where elections appear likely to take place toward the end of the year or early the next year, these seats are crucial. If the BJP wins these seats, it can hope to sweep the Jammu division with 43 seats, fortifying its chances to form a government with support from a Kashmir-based party.

There is a catch here though: Gujjars and the Bakerwals already have ST status, enjoying it since 1991, so they are worried about the dilution of their quota, with Paharis also partaking in the pie. And as a result, the BJP may not end up benefiting to the extent it expects.

But considering the electoral war machine that the BJP has become, it has the resources, the capacity, and the power to steamroll the combined opposition in the union territory. As for the opposition, it has become a crowded scene with the entry of new political actors over the last three years, the former Congress veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad is the latest. And all of them are acting at cross-purposes against one another. This includes even the PAGD which has recently witnessed some rumblings between the National Conference and the PDP – two principal parties.  And there is now a question mark whether the two parties will even contest jointly as they had indicated earlier. This all benefits the BJP, should there once again be a Hindu consolidation in the Jammu division, paving the way for a BJP-led rule in the UT. The scenario has never looked as imminent as it does now.

Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer

• The author is the Political Editor at Kashmir Observer