On Christmas, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti met the Governor N N Vohra and informed him about her governments decision to hold panchayat elections from February 15. Later in a statement, the CM hoped that the people will chose ballot over bullets again. The announcement has come as a surprise in Valley. Nobody expected the government to fix dates for panchayat polls when it has failed to hold the by-election to the parliamentary seat vacated by Mehbooba early last year when she took over as the CM. Eight people had lost their lives resisting the by-election in Srinagar constituency, the highest toll ever in the state on a polling day in a single constituency. The deaths took place as the security personnel at the polling booths tried to fend off the advancing crowds of protesters. This forced the government to defer the South Kashmir by-poll which was scheduled to take place shortly after Srinagar by-election. And ever since government is yet to make up its mind about the Anantnag poll.
There is every apprehension that a similar scenario could unfold once the panchayat polls get underway. More so, in South Kashmir which has emerged as the hub of the Valleys resurgent separatism. The area was also at the forefront of the unrest last year. Two-third of the killings and blindings in the six-month turmoil took place in the South Kashmir districts of Kulgam, Shopian, Pulwama and Anantnag.
While militancy is less in Central Kashmir and low-profile in North, the anger and alienation is no less. Much like South Kashmir, security forces have had to battle protesting crowds of people before killing a trapped militant. In fact, of all the places, it was by far the most peaceful area of Budgam where the people threw their lives on the line to resist the parliamentary by-poll.
But going by the past example, the CMs hope is also not misplaced. Kashmir could yet again see a massive mobilization in favour of the polls. In 2011, when panchayat polls were held within months of the 2010 unrest in which 120 people most of them teenagers – lost their lives, thousands of people turned out to not only participate in a bitterly fought campaign but to also cast their ballot. So much so that the final turnout hovered around a record 80 percent. This was demoralizing for the Valleys vast separatist constituency which expected a complete boycott following a massive groundswell in their favour only a few months ago.
Should a similar scenario unfold, it will temporarily hurtle the mainstream politics back to the centre stage. It will certainly be a setback to the separatist camp. But should situation go wrong and lead to bloodshed, the government will have only itself to blame. Nobody in Kashmir would want an early election after what happened during Lok Sabha by-poll early this year.
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