Walking out of the alliance would mean Mehbooba Mufti is saying her father had made a mistake in aligning with the BJP.
On December 7, when Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) patriarch Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was laid to rest at the Dara Shikoh Padshahi Park in his hometown Bijbehara in southern Kashmir, the crowd of mourners was shockingly small.
For Mehbooba Mufti, her fathers chosen successor, and the PDP, the underwhelming turnout confirmed their worst fears of an eroding support base.
The reluctant partners
In December 2014, when the Jammu and Kashmir elections threw up a fractured mandate, Mr. Sayeed took well over two months to form a government. In the end, the fear that keeping the Bharatiya Janata Party (that had emerged as the second largest party) out of power might lead to communal polarisation, and the belief that a government in Jammu and Kashmir needed a friendly face in Delhi and sheer numbers saw him reluctantly agree to an arrangement with a party that was the PDPs ideological opposite.
Mr. Sayeed had two options at that time, say Kashmir watchers: he could have allied himself with the Congress, roping in some Independents to make up the numbers or, better still, he could have refused to form a government and forced another election. But those were not options that he exercised.
In the 10 months that Mr. Sayeed held office with the BJP, the PDPs support base has steadily dwindled. If there had been dissension both within the PDP as well as among the partys backers at the decision taken last year, the behaviour of the Centre and the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) State units in this period has only validated the doubts they had.
The coalition partners clashed over a range of issues: prompted by the local RSS unit, a proactive BJP divided the State on the issue of beef, on flying the Jammu and Kashmir flag along with the Tricolour, and the release of Kashmiri separatist Masarat Alam. In Jammu, the Sangh Parivar restarted discussions on the need to abrogate Article 370 that gives Jammu and Kashmir its special status a subject that is a no-go area for the PDP. Simultaneously, the Centre failed to help the State with the funds that it needed for rehabilitation after the 2014 floods.
It also did not go unnoticed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi neither visited the ailing Mr. Sayeed while he was at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in the national capital nor visited Kashmir after his death. Little wonder then that Ms. Mufti, who many people had expected should have been sworn in by now, sought time and the State is now under Governors Rule.
In her fathers footsteps
The conundrum that Ms. Mufti has to crack is that while she must honour her fathers decision the last act of a chequered political legacy she has to work to retrieve lost political ground and allay the fears of her party colleagues. She cannot afford to walk out of the alliance as it would not just precipitate a political crisis, it would mean she is saying her father had made a mistake in aligning the PDP with the BJP. This is clearly something Ms. Mufti will not do. She may be a tough politician who has been through the mill, but she is clearly too devoted to her father and political mentor to destroy his legacy.
In short, while the visit of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, along with her party colleagues Ghulam Nabi Azad and Ambika Soni, triggered speculation about a possible realignment of political forces, it is now clear that for the moment, it will be a PDP-BJP government again.
The sense in Kashmirs political circles is that while in the wake of Mr. Sayeeds death, it had appeared that both the PDP and the BJP were trying to reframe the terms of engagement with the latter even pushing for a rotational Chief Minister the two are now likely to settle down for the status quo. On her part, Ms. Mufti has begun to realise she cannot delay the formation of a government for much longer. For by doing so, she would raise false hopes among her supporters that she might actually break with the BJP, something she cannot do at this juncture. She would also lose whatever goodwill she enjoys right now.
As for the BJP, its State unit initially felt that Mr. Sayeeds death provided it with an opportunity to make fresh demands of the PDP. The BJPs central leaders, however, began to panic when Ms. Mufti made it clear that there would be no quick swearing-in. The BJP is well aware that a PDP-Congress alliance is always possible with a few Independents and that it may not be able to hold its current tally in the Jammu region if fresh elections are called.
Ms. Mufti clearly finds herself between a rock and a hard place. Running a coalition government with the BJP after she takes oath as Chief Minister probably by the weekend will be tough going. Those who know her well say that in all likelihood, she will choose a politically opportune moment to break with the BJP some months down the line and then team up with the more congenial Congress. The symbolism of Ms. Gandhis visit to Srinagar earlier this week to comfort Ms. Mufti was just that: the party is willing to wait in the wings and help an old friend whenever it finds itself in need.
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