SRINAGAR: Narendra Modis surprise visit to Pakistan to wish Nawaz Sharif on his birthday has taken everyone by surprise. Modi, after making veiled criticisms on Pakistan from Afghanistan, was returning from Russia where he signed defense deals with the Russians. Modis visit to Pakistan is not merely a good will or a courtesy gesture. He is adding weight and lending the force of his office to a peace process between arch rivals, India and Pakistan. The inference that can be drawn from the visit and the prelude plus context to the visit- the NSA level talks at Bangkok, and then Sushma Swarajs visit to Pakistan- is that something is afoot between India and Pakistan. And this something appears to be a departure from the past. Its a departure largely because of varying and multifarious contexts: domestic, international and regional.
Domestically, from the Indian side, the country is now ruled or governed by a far right Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, which received an overwhelming mandate by the people. Pertinently, the election campaign of the BJP, was a quasi presidential campaign wherein the BJPs trump card was Modi himself; the campaign revolved around Modi. In essence the electorate reposed its trust on Modi. This means or implies that people will trust in the judgment and policies of Modi and his government. From the Pakistani standpoint, the country is in transition and in a consolidation phase: it has acted firmly against its homegrown militants, latching on the so called Global War on Terror is now yielding diminishing returns given other pressing problems in the Middle East, and more pertinently the evolving form and shape of international politics. Both- the conditions that define India and Pakistan respectively- mean that a propitious opportunity exists for breakthrough talks between the two nuclear armed antagonists. Given BJPs clout and heft in India and the trust in Modi, and given Pakistans condition, both countries are in a unique position to pull it off, so to speak.
In global terms, Russia is asserting itself and challenging United States power, the ISIS has become the crucible over which Russian revanchism appears to be premised upon. China reorienting itself economically from an export led economic strategy to a consumption led one, is flexing its muscles in its neighborhood, and has ventured as far as Africa. And the United States appears to be in relative decline. Notwithstanding United States problems, it still retains heft and clout in International Politics and over states. The declining hegemon has an interest in peace and stability in South Asia. Kashmir and other problems would in this scheme constitute irritants for the United States. The drift and gravamen of the United States policy would be rapprochement between India and Pakistan. Regionally, peace and stability in Afghanistan would be the prize-even it means the propping of the good Taliban in power.
Added up, conditions are propitious for a deep engagement between India and Pakistan. However, a caveat is in order here. While it is all well and good that India Pakistan are making attempts to engage each other in a deeper and profound manner, history suggests that talks over a future of a conflicted peoples are held over their heads, then the longevity and sustainability of these talks are called into question . The reasons lie in the nature of nationalism which is a recrudescent force and the motor of modern day history. Nationalist recrudescence means and entails recrudescence of conflict. So even if a treaty emerges out of the putative Indo Pak bonhomie, it may not be sustainable. Key and the real challenge will be to institute a paradigm which involves all stakeholders and the nature of this paradigm should redound to the benefit of all stakeholders, including Kashmiris. This will indeed constitute a challenge. However, this is what statesmanship would entail. If both Modi and Sharif are morphing into statesmen who will change the course and direction of the subcontinents future, the obvious should not elude them.
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